Numbers
Claude View
The Numbers
monday.com trades at $62, down 75% from its June 2025 peak of $317, after a guidance miss on its February 2026 earnings call shattered the growth narrative. The stock now trades at 2.6x trailing sales and 28x trailing earnings – historically cheap for a high-gross-margin SaaS business growing 18-19%. The single metric most likely to rerate or derate this stock is the FY2026 revenue growth trajectory: if management can stabilize growth near 20% while holding non-GAAP margins, the multiple re-expands; if growth decelerates further toward 15%, the stock finds no floor.
Valuation Snapshot
Share Price ($)
Market Cap ($M)
Enterprise Value ($M)
Cash ($M)
P/E Ratio
P/S Ratio
FCF Yield
Net Dollar Retention
At an EV of $1.9B against $1.23B in trailing revenue and $323M in adjusted FCF, the market is pricing monday.com as if growth is over. The 9.7% FCF yield is unusually high for a SaaS company with 89% gross margins and 18%+ revenue growth.
Price Decline
Three distinct selloff waves explain the 75% decline. First, the Q2 2025 report in August cited Google algorithm changes hurting self-serve SMB acquisition, sending shares from $314 to $193. Second, the Q4 2025 guidance miss on February 9, 2026 – where management guided FY2026 revenue to $1.45-1.46B versus the $1.5B consensus they had previously endorsed – triggered another 21% single-day drop. Third, a broader sector-wide AI disruption panic in April 2026, driven by fears that AI automation reduces software seat counts, pushed the stock to new lows.
Revenue and Earnings Power
Revenue has compounded at 30% over the past two years, from $730M to $1.23B. Gross profit tracks revenue almost perfectly at a consistent 89% margin – the hallmark of a pure SaaS model with minimal COGS. GAAP operating income has inflected from -$39M in FY2023 to roughly breakeven in FY2025, masked by $177M in stock-based compensation.
Quarter-over-quarter sequential revenue adds have been remarkably stable at $15-18M per quarter. The growth rate is decelerating (from 34% YoY in Q1-25 to 25% in Q4-25), but absolute dollar growth remains consistent. FY2026 guidance implies roughly $55M in quarterly adds, consistent with the run rate.
The SBC Gap: GAAP vs Non-GAAP Reality
monday.com's SBC-to-revenue ratio of 14.4% is elevated but has improved from over 20% in FY2023 (including the foundation grant). The $135M share buyback initiated in Q4 2025 partially offsets dilution, but the diluted share count of 53.1M versus 52.4M a year ago shows net dilution of ~1.3%. Management has $735M remaining under the repurchase authorization.
Cash Generation
Adj. FCF FY2025 ($M)
FCF Margin
Cash + Securities ($M)
FCF Yield
FCF is lumpy quarter to quarter due to billing seasonality but the trailing twelve-month figure of $310M ($323M adjusted) is robust. FCF margin dipped to 26% from 30% in FY2024, partly due to FX headwinds and HQ build-out costs. The FY2026 FCF guidance of $275-290M implies a slight moderation, which the market has punished severely.
Balance Sheet: Fortress Position
monday.com has $1.5B in cash and marketable securities against zero financial debt. The $169M reported as "total debt" consists entirely of operating lease liabilities, not borrowings. Total equity of $1.25B gives a book value of $24/share, meaning the stock at $62 trades at just 2.6x book. For a software company, this is exceptional balance sheet strength – the cash alone represents 47% of the current market cap.
Upmarket Momentum: The Growth Engine
The upmarket progression is the most compelling signal in the data. Customers with $100K+ ARR grew 45% to 1,756, and now represent 28% of total ARR (up from 24%). Customers above $500K grew 74%. Net dollar retention of 110% overall rises to 116% for $50K+ and $100K+ cohorts. RPO grew 37% to $839M, faster than revenue, signaling longer contract commitments from enterprise customers.
Peer Comparison
monday.com now trades at a lower P/S multiple than Atlassian (2.6x vs 2.7x) despite growing faster (27% vs 20%) and generating similar FCF yields. ServiceNow commands 6.9x sales with slower growth but GAAP profitability. Freshworks trades at a similar multiple but grows more slowly and has thinner margins. The peer comparison suggests MNDY is priced for a permanent growth deceleration that has not yet materialized.
The scatter plot crystallizes the mispricing opportunity or trap: MNDY sits in the bottom-right quadrant – highest growth, lowest valuation – while Smartsheet (SMAR) commands nearly 3x the P/S multiple despite growing at just 4%. The market is pricing in severe growth deceleration or AI disruption risk that is not yet visible in the operating metrics.
Analyst Consensus
Consensus expects revenue growth to decelerate from 27% in FY2025 to 18% in FY2026, then stabilize around 16% in FY2027-28. EPS is expected to dip from $2.24 in FY2025 to $1.83 in FY2026 (the FY2025 figure was boosted by a one-time $61M tax benefit), then recover to $3.17 by FY2028. At $62, the stock trades at 34x FY2026 EPS but just 20x FY2028 EPS. Analyst targets cluster in the $80-140 range, with a median around $100 – implying 60% upside. However, several brokerages (UBS, BofA, Loop Capital, Baird) have cut to neutral or hold.
Capital Allocation
monday.com generated $334M in operating cash flow and deployed it across modest capex ($24M), net marketable securities purchases ($110M), and a meaningful $135M share buyback. The buyback program ($870M authorized, $735M remaining) is the company's first significant capital return – a signal that management views the stock as undervalued. Given $1.5B in cash, the company could theoretically repurchase 47% of its current market cap without external financing.
What the Numbers Say
The financials confirm a durable, high-quality SaaS business: 89% gross margins, accelerating enterprise adoption, strong cash generation, and a fortress balance sheet. The numbers contradict the market's panic pricing – there is no balance sheet stress, no FCF deterioration, and no customer attrition visible in the 110% NDR or 37% RPO growth. What must be watched next quarter is whether Q1 2026 revenue meets the $338-340M guide (confirming 20% growth) and whether management can demonstrate that AI disruption fears are overblown by showing continued seat growth alongside its new AI products.